Ron Paul as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate: An outside and an inside view
July 25th, 2007 by Steve
Here’s what some Libertarian Party outsiders are saying about Ron Paul running as the LP presidential candidate:
- Andrew Sullivan: “Why not run again as a libertarian? Many of us are dreading the possible choice next year. Paul as a third party candidate would cheer us up no end.”
- Paul Hamilton: “The question is whether or not there are sufficient numbers of traditional conservatives who are disgusted enough with Bush’s mutilation of their principles who would follow Paul to a third party. It probably depends on who the Pubs nominate — it it’s someone who wants to treat the presidency like the papacy, such as Romney, it just might happen.”
- Steven White: “Ron Paul as strong third party candidate? Really? Might work, actually.”
- Andrew Sullivan’s anonymous writer: “Since then the need for a credible Libertarian candidate has grown significantly, as the Republican Party leaders have abandoned libertarianism, and Paul’s views have become heretical. Now, thanks to the shock value of his “heresy”, he’s already become far better-known than most Libertarian Presidential candidates ever get. The Libertarians would be fools not to nominate him. And if they do, he and his supporters will be even more vocal, from now until November 2008. In a tight three-way race, this could put him in an excellent kingmaker position.”
- Ross Douthat: “Andrew’s right: As the Libertarian Party’s nominee for President, Ron Paul would be as formidable as any fringe-ish third party candidate could hope to be; depending on the general election matchup, he might be able to match Ralph Nader’s 2000 influence, or even slightly exceed it.”
The questions are intriguing. As an insider to Libertarian Party presidential politics and the only one in the party polling both party and movement people about presidential campaigns, I’ll make a few small offerings.
Dr. Paul is receiving the support of 72.2 percent to 76.4 percent of self-identified Libertarian Party members. Should he decide to run as an LP candidate, the numbers are clearly there. If he doesn’t, here’s my opinion about what might happen anyway:
In addition to the general presidential preference question, the survey participants who identified themselves as LP members were asked two specific questions dealing with Ron Paul and the convention.
The first question asked: “Assuming that Ron Paul is no longer in the presidential race at the time of the Libertarian Party presidential nominating convention, for which Libertarian Party presidential candidate would you cast your nominating vote?”
54.7 percent of the participants answered “Undecided,” 6.4 percent chose NOTA and 5 percent selected “Other,” while the remaining 33.9 percent selected one of 12 LP candidates. It’s assumed that the majority of the 54.7 percent and some of the NOTAs maintain support for Paul.
The other question was more telling: “Assuming that Ron Paul is running competitively as a Republican candidate at the time of the Libertarian Party presidential nominating convention, for which Libertarian Party presidential candidate would you cast your nominating vote?”
In this case, 50.5 percent said they would “Would try to change the bylaws in order for Ron Paul to receive the Libertarian Party nomination or become engaged in some sort of effort to draft Ron Paul as the Libertarian presidential nominee.”
23.3 percent were “Undecided,” 4.6 percent chose NOTA and 2.6 percent chose “Other.” Only 19 percent actually supported one of the 12 LP candidates.
Libertarian Party bylaws clearly provide that, under current circumstances, Dr. Paul is not eligible for the LP nomination. However, with data like these, it seems quite possible that convention delegates may decide to change the bylaws in order to somehow endorse or support Ron Paul’s campaign.
It’s beginning to look like the 2008 Libertarian National Convention could end up having, once again, a considerable amount of political drama. While I haven’t yet decided what role I’ll play, I wouldn’t miss this floor fight for the world.
6 Responses to “Ron Paul as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate: An outside and an inside view”
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University Update - Ron Paul - Permanent Link to Ron Paul as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate: An outside and an inside view wrote on 07/25/07 at 8:48 pm :
[…] Clark Link to Article ron paul Permanent Link to Ron Paul as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate: […]
Eric Dondero wrote on 07/27/07 at 12:02 pm :
I think you’re right.
I’ve concluded that Wayne Root is too smart for the Libertarian Party, and the Libertarian Party is too dumb for Wayne Root.
I think now, it’s likely to be the Marijuana Dude Steve Kubby, or the “Ever-so Inspiring, devlishly handsome He-man,” George Phillies.
This is actually the best case scenario. For it now appears that Rudy Giuliani has a near lock on the GOP nomination. Very latest polls show him way out ahead, 37% to Fred Thompson at 14%. That’s overwhelming.
With a libertarian-leaner, called an outright “libertarian” by a recent WSJ article, like Giuliani at the GOP helm, it would be disvantageous for the Libertarian Party to have a strong candidate like Wayne Root.
Better for the LP to run a weak candidate like Kubby or Phillies to garner the standard 350,000 votes, so as not to take too much away from libertarian-leaning Giuliani.
Here’s wishing Kubby or Phillies the best of luck for the LP Nomination!
Steven wrote on 07/27/07 at 5:01 pm :
Rudy Giuliani’s views on executive secrecy, civil liberties, and so on make him a distinctly non-libertarian candidate.
whatever wrote on 07/28/07 at 3:19 am :
Eric, do you even have a life anymore?
Eric Dondero wrote on 07/28/07 at 2:36 pm :
Steven, Giuliani’s views on abortion - Pro-Choice BY DEFINITION make him a libertarian.
When I first joined the Libertarian Party back in 1985 Dianne Pilcher and Nick Dunbar told me, “hey, we Libertarians are just Pro-Choice Conservatives who hate Jerry Falwell.”
I’d say that definition fits Giuliani like a glove. He’s the ultimate non-Religious Right Conservative Republican.
And the great thing is that the RR is having to accept him as a candidate. Gary Bauer, Pat Robertson and all the other Neo-Con Religious Righters, are HAVING TO ACCEPT OUR PRO-CHOICE LIBERTARIAN REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT.
We Libertarians should be jumpin’ for joy and screaming off the rooftops over this! It’s taken us years to get here. And we have finally won. We’ve beaten down the fearless Religious Right. And now sourpusses like you Steve want to rain on the parade by saying shit like “Giuliani isn’t a real libertarian.”
Give it up Steven. Life doesn’t always suck. We’ve just about won. Let’s have a little celebration now shall we?
Because it’s the right thing to do… : Welcome to Fuglyville wrote on 07/30/07 at 1:44 am :
[…] that feeling remain amongst themselves… I don’t know. What I do know, and what I think Stephen Gordon may agree with, is that Libertarians need to make up their mind right now what will begin to make […]