GordonUnleashed

Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians

July 25th, 2007 by Steve

Once again, Ron Paul is the big winner in the latest LibertarianLists.com survey. When asked about their presidential preference, 73.5 percent of the libertarians who participated in the online survey chose Dr. Paul as their presidential preference. This is an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous LibertarianLists survey (cross-tab data available upon request).

Among the 501 self-identified members of the Libertarian Party, 76.4 percent chose Paul, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous survey period.

There were 731 survey participants in this online survey, providing a margin of of +/- 3.6 percent. The survey was conducted from July 12 to July 22, 2007.

Full baseline results for the presidential preference question after the jump:

Field Summary for 10005:
If the 2008 General Election was held today, for which presidential candidate are you most likely to vote?
Answer	Count	Percentage
No answer	0	0.00%
Steve Kubby (1)	21	2.87%
Mike Gravel (2)	0	0.00%
George Phillies (3)	21	2.87%
Ron Paul (4)	537	73.46%
Wayne Allyn Root (5)	31	4.24%
Dennis Kucinich (6)	2	0.27%
Mike Jingozian (7)	0	0.00%
Newt Gingrich (8)	11	1.50%
Christine Smith (9)	5	0.68%
Barack Obama (10)	9	1.23%
Daniel Imperato (11)	1	0.14%
Tom Tancredo (12)	5	0.68%
Barry Hess (13)	3	0.41%
Joe Biden (14)	1	0.14%
Alden Link (15)	1	0.14%
Chuck Hagel (16)	1	0.14%
Robert Milnes (17)	1	0.14%
Mike Bloomberg (18)	1	0.14%
Bob Jackson (19)	2	0.27%
Fred Thompson (20)	17	2.33%
John Finan (21)	0	0.00%
Dave Hollist (22)	0	0.00%
Rudy Giuliani (23)	18	2.46%
John McCain (24)	1	0.14%
Hillary Clinton (25)	2	0.27%
Mike Huckabee (26)	3	0.41%
John Edwards (27)	1	0.14%
Tommy Thompson (28)	0	0.00%
Jim Gilmore (29)	0	0.00%
Duncan Hunter (30)	1	0.14%
Al Gore (31)	4	0.55%
Mitt Romney (32)	3	0.41%
Bill Richardson (33)	4	0.55%
Alan Keyes (34)	2	0.27%
Cynthia McKinney (35)	0	0.00%
Gail Parker (36)	0	0.00%
Ralph Nader (37)	2	0.27%
Sam Brownback (38)	0	0.00%
Other (-oth-)	20	2.74%

Full raw data here.

To obtain more information about the Libertarian Party presidential candidate survey results, visit here.

To see how delegates to the 2008 Libertarian National Convention may respond to the Ron Paul situation, visit here.

Posted in National Politics, Libertarian Party, Libertarian Movement

18 Responses to “Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians”

Kn@ppster wrote on 07/25/07 at 4:46 pm :

Survey says (redux)…

The second LibertarianLists survey of libertarian attitudes on the 2008 presidential election has wrapped up….
University Update - Ron Paul - Permanent Link to Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians wrote on 07/25/07 at 4:50 pm :

[…] Clark Link to Article ron paul Permanent Link to Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians » […]
Steve LaBianca wrote on 07/25/07 at 6:11 pm :

I voted in both surveys, and incidentally, I voted for Ron Paul in 1988. I WANT to vote for the Libertarian Party candidate, and so far, Steve Kubby is the best of the lot. I will say this, if Wayne Allyn Root is the LP nominee, i will not be voting for him, and I urge all of my Libertarian Party colleagues to discourage in any way a Wayne Allyn Root candidacy as the LP nominee. This man is a died in the wool “unlibertarian” Republican, and would be a very bad choice for the LP. If Root gets the LP nomination, I will be either voting for Ron Paul as the Republican nominee, or I will be writing Dr. Paul’s name in. Thanks Steve for your poll/survey.
G.E. Smith wrote on 07/25/07 at 6:11 pm :

You’re using the term “percent” when you should be using “percentage points.” For example, Wayne Allyn Root’s support went from 2.0% to 4.24%. That’s not an improvement of “2.4%,” it’s an improvement of 112%.

I really thought Bill Richardson would have had a more substantial vote share out of all those “others” from the last tally. I know of two others who wrote him in the first time. Then again, I switched my vote to Ron Paul, post-Kubby endoresement, so that supports the findings.
Ken wrote on 07/25/07 at 6:36 pm :

I cannot believe that there are libertarians out there that would even consider Guliani, Obama, Thompson, etc. If the Ron Paul thing doesn’t work out, I may be switching to the Constitution Party. I’ve been an LP member for over 10 years now and am sick of the neocons infiltrating it. As long as the Eric Donderos are welcome in the LP, my votes and money will go elsewhere. More so, I’ll recruit everyone that I’ve pushed towards the LP to the CP. Either stay principled or RIP.
GordonUnleashed » Blog Archive » Ron Paul as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate: An outside and an inside view wrote on 07/25/07 at 6:43 pm :

[…] Paul is receiving the support of 72.2 percent to 76.4 percent of self-identified Libertarian Party members. Should he decide to run as an LP candidate, the […]
Steve wrote on 07/25/07 at 6:57 pm :

Global — valid point — been in a hurry today. I’ll fix it.
Last Free Voice » Blog Archive » New Survey Results: Paul Wins, Root Wins, Phillies Wins, Kubby Wins wrote on 07/25/07 at 7:39 pm :

[…] For a quick view of Ron Paul support, visit here. […]
Huh? wrote on 07/26/07 at 12:25 am :

I don’t get the 18 votes for Ghouliani. Is Eric Dondero attempting to spam for Benito again?
Eric Dondero wrote on 07/27/07 at 12:09 pm :

No, I did not “spam” for Giuliani. I voted one time. And I resent the accusation.

That said, I think it’s quite significant that Giuliani won second place among all Republicans in the poll, just besting Thompson by 1 point.

It’s interesting that Steve Gordon fails to mention this fact.

The big story out of this poll, is not how much support Ron Paul has amongst hardcore Libertarians, but rather that Giuliani has so much support amongst the same set.

18 votes for Giuliani! Not too shabby!!
Eric Dondero wrote on 07/27/07 at 12:11 pm :

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:

Wayne Root is too smart for the Libertarian Party, and the Libertarian Party is too dumb to nominate him.

It’s going to be Kubby or Phillies. And that’s a good thing for the overall libertarian movement. For if Root were to win the nomination, the LP would get well into the millions of votes category. With Kubby or Phillies as the nominee it will likely remain the standard 350,000.

Now that it appears Giuliani, identified as a “libertarian” in a recent WSJ editorial, has a lock on the nomination, it would be insane to run a strong LP candidate against a libertarian-leaning GOP candidate like Giuliani.

Better to run a Losertarian, who will garner the fewest amount of votes.
Brian Miller wrote on 07/27/07 at 9:36 pm :

As I’ve said before on other web sites, this study is wholly invalid.

It’s a self-selected base of participants, obviously spamming the poll to get favorable numbers for Ron Paul. That alone renders it completely invalid. Any old candidate could decide to spam the study with their supporters to alter the numbers.

That’s why any study that is not a random-sample-driven study is invalid.

Further still, it’s a bit embarrassing to not see a single calculation of margin of error or statistical significance. Have they even been calculated?!? Who knows.

This study, while a nice talking point for Paul boosters, is fundamentally misleading. The only worse thing than making a decision based on no data is making a decision based on bad data, and this is classic bad data.
Steve wrote on 07/28/07 at 12:08 pm :

Brian, the margin of errors have been posted many times and are top-center on the posted survey results. However, it is important to consider that the universe surveyed is of online libertarians, not those who are more likely to respond by phone or mail.

There was no evidence of Paul supporters spamming the surveys. There was, in the second one, evidence of two LP campaigns doing so. We’ve been forthright about that on several websites.
Steve wrote on 07/28/07 at 12:10 pm :

Brian, as I’ve said to you before: Feel free to jump on board to increase the validity of the surveys.

I know the data aren’t perfect, but it is the best (and only, of which I’m aware) reflection of the mood of libertarian and Libertarian voters for the 2008 elections. I’d love to see someone else come up with a superior product — but in the meantime, I’ll keep trying to improve what we’ve got.
Eric Dondero wrote on 07/29/07 at 11:11 am :

The data is good Steve. You did a fine job. A hearty Congrats. I for one, applaud your efforts.

Where you falter though, is you completely ignore the major stunning finding of the survey: The Fact that Rudy Giuliani has so much support amongst hardcore Movement Libertarians. That’s that glaring banner headline to come out of this. But all you do is make a passing reference to it.

Not accusing you of bias of course. Just “selective reporting.”
ladeeda wrote on 07/29/07 at 2:39 pm :

Rudy is not even embraced in NYC, his stomping ground. Why are you supporting him? Check, one two, check one two.. This mic seems dead?
Steve LaBianca wrote on 08/4/07 at 5:35 am :

Boy, Dondero, voted for Giuliani once, and he points out that the Giuliani vote total “just besting Thompson by 1 point.” How convenient that Dondero’s vote made the difference. And how about the WSJ calling Giuliani “libertarian” . . . given the editorial “neoconness” of the WSJ at this time, I wouldn’t put too much credibility in what the WSJ has to say. Thirdly, 18 “votes” for Giuliani, let’s see at 2.46 percent, that IS the big story, since Ron Paul only got 73.46 percent . . . only a thirty-fold greater percentage. Excellent commentary and analysis Dondero/Rittberg!
Lastly, Wayne Allyn Root, from my understanding is a registered Republican in Nevada. Why doesn’t he run for the Republican nomination? Is it because there isn’t anyone of the stature of Harry Browne (RIP Harry-we love you!) or even Aaron Russo (get well Aaron!)running for the LP nomination to compete with? Root may be slick, but he isn’t comfortable with his own party to run in, and the LP is much too principled (even still) to nominate him. Root’s candidacy is DOA, even if Ron Paul doesn’t get the Republican nomination.
Third Party Watch » Blog Archive » Libertarian Lists Survey Results wrote on 03/13/08 at 5:03 pm :

[…] This is certainly a decrease since last July. […]

TrackBack URI

Rants, Opinions and Blogosphere Banter

Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians

18 Responses to “Ron Paul’s lead increases among libertarians”

Leave a Reply

About

Archives

Categories

Meta