GordonUnleashed

Hillary v. Ron Paul

September 13th, 2007 by Steve

While I support Ron Paul’s campaign, I’m no starry-eyed zealot suggesting that Dr. Paul will win if enough people watch America: From Freedom to Fascism or if enough Ron Paul rEVOLution banners are placed around the country. The overwhelming Internet support is great, but in 2008, no presidential campaign will be won on the Internet. While these may be helpful tools, it will take a lot more than this to get Ron Paul out of the low single digits in the polls.

I’ve seen a few pollsters who have conducted head-to-head matchups of Ron Paul against Hillary Clinton in the general election. It should come as no surprise that Hillary won, but one needs to bear in mind that Ron Paul is, at this moment, hardly a household word. Paul’s name recognition could change though. He’s getting a reasonable amount of mainstream media attention and as I’ve traveled through the country over the last few months (including Los Angeles, Birmingham, Las Vegas, the District of Columbia, Atlanta, misc. cities in Tennessee), I’ve seen more random Ron Paul signs or bumper stickers than for all of the other presidential candidates combined.

I’m intrigued by the hypothetical concept of Hillary and the good doctor going mano y mano in the general election. I found out today that I’m not the only one:

Analysis: The antiwar Republican congressman from Texas poses a serious threat to Hillary Clinton and potential Democratic rivals in the general election.

The presidential race has to a great extent turned into a two issue campaign, immigration and the war in Iraq. Democratic candidates are capitalizing on popular antiwar sentiments among the public but are swimming up stream by apparently supporting President Bush’s policy of turning a blind eye toward illegal immigration and unsecured borders.

Republicans running for president, unless sentiments change, are generally positioned against public opinion with their support for the war, however, they are riding the tide of public opinion when it comes to securing the borders and stopping illegal immigration and terrorists from entering the country. (Even if half of them are faking it)

Two Presidential candidates, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul, clearly support protecting U.S. borders from illegal immigration and terrorist attacks. Both candidates have opposed President Bush’s seeming support of the Council On Foreign Relations plans to replace the United States with a North American Union by integrating North America and erasing national boundaries.

Ron Paul sets himself apart from other Republicans by being decidedly antiwar. In a general election this may actually put Paul at a decided advantage over Hillary Clinton and most of her Democratic rivals. Paul will likely steal the thunder from Clinton’s antiwar rhetoric since he voted against the Iraq war that Hillary Clinton voted for.

At least among those voters that believe the Iraq war was a mistake, including Democrats, Paul will demonstrate his foresight was better than Clinton’s.

When looking at elections, my general observation is that voters generally make their decisions on one to three political issues balanced with their instinct or knowledge about the personality and experience of the candidates.

Let’s take a look the public perception of Hillary, the key GOP contenders, and Ron Paul.

Hillary: [The five-letter defamatory term which starts with the letter “B”] readily sums up the majority opinion. Additionally, she isn’t trusted by many who should be her rightful base: those initally opposing the Iraq invasion.
Key Republican contenders: Politics as normal from a group of Washington insiders. America voted pro-war, pro-spending Republicans out of office last year. GOP or Democratic spin put aside, I’ve seen no clue that this sentiment has changed.
Ron Paul: 20 years of congressional service provides experience but he clearly doesn’t fit the stereotype of the typical DC insider. As people learn things such as the fact that he’s turned down his congressional pension, he’ll find it even easier to deflate the insider image. Even his opposition will readily admit that he’s a man of principle, even if they disagree with him on the issues. Although Mike Huckabee tried it, it won’t be easy to paint Ron Paul as a man who doesn’t understand concepts like honor and respect.

Fred Thompson is trying to act and sound like Reagan, but his voting record belies his efforts. He’s an actor and I’m sure millions of dollars will be spent to remind Americans of this fact. There is only one candidate who literally oozes positive character the way Ronald Reagan did: Ron Paul.

Larry Fester covered individual issues like the war and immigration in the hyperlinked article. I’d like to expand on his work a bit. I generally like to lump national political issues into three general categories: Social policy, fiscal policy, and foreign policy.

With respect to social policy, Ron Paul is personally very conservative but his policy votes have coincided with how most Americans feel: Leave us alone unless we are harming someone else. Hillary is typecast as being so socially liberal that she scares most folks. Most of the Republican candidates are far too socially conservative for anyone outside of the GOP. While Giulini may cater to some socially liberal Republicans, Paul attracts extremely conservative and extremely libertarian activists while simultaneously appealing to the middle.

As Paul supports all ten amendments to the Bill of Rights, it is easy for him to go after any of his opponents on civil liberties issues (be it the Second Amendment or Guantanamo Bay), as none of the rest of them support the document in totality.

With respect to most fiscal issues, in survey after survey most Americans prefer fiscal conservatism and economic responsibility. Ron Paul has a twenty year track record which no Democrat or Republican can match in this regard. Additionally, he is free of the taint of favoring corporate donors or special interest groups, another claim which his opponents of either party will find difficult to match. Paul appeals to many moderates, most Republicans and some Democrats in the federal fiscal arena. He’s not made the mistake most Republicans do and has focused on spending, as opposed to tax cuts, as a fiscal solution. This and his opposition to trade policy like NAFTA and CAFTA will certainly appeal to the Ross Perot voter as well as many conservatives and some liberals.

The one fiscal area where Paul is currently hurting in the polls is health care policy. However, I’d expect to see these numbers changing, at least to some degree, before Election Day. Right now, there is no serious opposition to the Clinton, Obama or Edwards version of HillaryCare, but there will certainly be new scare stories about the dangers of a socialized health care system popping up between now and Election Day — and they will have some impact. Additionally, Paul’s health care message is not the same as the other Republicans and the fact that he is a physician will carry some weight in the debate.

On foreign policy, Ron Paul wins hands down with the majority of Americans. The only track record opposition researchers can attack is his opposition to the war — an issue where they are clearly on the losing side. Obama is doing a good job of reminding Americans where Hillary cast her votes in the past.

If I had to guess at this moment, the top four political issues on which Americans will be voting next November will be the Iraq War, immigration (this replaces the abortion issue), responsible federal spending and general civil liberties issues. Let’s look at the total hypothetical package voters would be looking at if Ron Paul was to face Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Charisma: Hillary will barely win in this category, but it will be offset by her very high negatives and potential public awareness of expenditures to image consultants.
Integrity: Ron Paul wins hands down.
Experience: Ron Paul is a Representative while Hillary is a Senator who has more-or-less served in the White House. Generally, voters prefer executive experience and Senate trumps House on the legislative side. Hillary’s win in this arena will be offset because she is a carpetbagging Senator who has more-or-less served in the White House.
Iraq: Ron Paul wins decisively.
Health care: Hillary wins, but by less of a margin than she would win if the election was held today.
Civil liberties: Ron Paul wins.
Fiscal issues not related to health care: Ron Paul wins.

If I had to call a Hillary v. Ron Paul general election this early, it would go to Ron Paul. If I had to call the race between Hillary and any of the other GOP candidates, I’d suggest that Hillary would win. However, Ron Paul has to first win a GOP nomination and that’s a totally different ballgame.

H/T to George.

Posted in Bad Republicans, Bad Democrats, Ron Paul, Articles, National Politics, Libertarian Movement

25 Responses to “Hillary v. Ron Paul”

Hillary v. Ron Paul | Presidential Candidates Watch 2008 wrote on 09/13/07 at 5:52 pm :

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Anonymous wrote on 09/14/07 at 12:28 am :

Steve, you keep grasping at straws.(nice pun, don’t you think?) Sure, Billary v Ron Paul might be competitive. Because republicans would then only have the one choice-RP. i.e. they’d rather vote RP than Billary. But reality check: RP will never get the nomination. You can’t just forget about all those other republicans. They are not going to vote RP in their primaries. They are not going to disappear either. Try adjusting your antenna.
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/14/07 at 12:30 am :

Oops. Guess who?
Johnnyb wrote on 09/14/07 at 5:49 am :

Anonymous does has a point in that getting Ron Paul the Repubican nod is going to be a daunting task, mostly because he’s not treated as a serious contender. Support on the internet is great, activists and supports putting up Ron Paul signs and banners are great, but what Ron Paul supporters really need to do now is open their wallets.
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/14/07 at 6:11 am :

Johnnyb, right, because he isn’t a serious contender. To THEM, he’s a laughing stock. Evidently Ron Paul supporters have already opened their wallets. That would explain the lack of support for the REAL libertarian candidates.
Don wrote on 09/14/07 at 8:42 am :

In addition to opening their wallets, I would think it essential for Ron Paul supporters do whatever is required in their states to become a delegate to the GOP nominating convention.
disinter wrote on 09/14/07 at 10:25 am :

Milnes - get over yourself. Even if Ron Paul wasn’t running for President, no reasonable libertarian would donate to you.
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/14/07 at 11:49 am :

Don, Yes, the instructions come in over their tin foil hats. Disinter, I know. They were called losertarians long before I came along.
Anonymous wrote on 09/14/07 at 12:50 pm :

I find it interesting that Mr. Milnes is running for the nomination of what he terms the “Loser”tarian Party; however, he has failed to secure a single donation or a single supporter.

Let’s see: Mr. Milnes is loosing (badly) to a bunch of loosers in a contest to see who will lead a group of loosers. Speaks volumes.

Ron Paul (a winner of 10 terms in Congress) is currently loosing to a bunch of winners (current or past office holders) in a contest to see who will lead a group of winners.
Dustin Timbrook wrote on 09/14/07 at 1:29 pm :

I don’t understand why everyone still insists that Ron Paul can’t win the primary. I’m a 23 year old internet using male- Ron Paul’s key demographic. No, I’ve never voted in a Presidential primary, but I will for the first time for Ron Paul just like all the other 20-something Ron Paul supporters. Surely this sudden influx of new primary voters will affect the vote. As I see it, it’s a done deal so long as we get enough delegates out there.
Maybe that’s overly optomistic, but It’s a better informed opinion to the national polls that only get responses from blue haired Republican faithfulls who still answer their landlines.
LittleJim wrote on 09/14/07 at 1:31 pm :

Milnes:

Reality check: You aren’t going to win the LP nomination. You will have less support in the LP than Paul does in the GOP.

If Paul’s base continues to grow, it is possible that he could win.

If your base was to grow 1000 times its size, you would still lose the LP nomination. The reason is because zero times one thousand is still zero. Zero is the number you are identified with.
Steve wrote on 09/14/07 at 1:33 pm :

Dustin,

I’m not saying Paul can’t win the primary, just that it will be a very tough battle.

It would be easier if GOP primaries didn’t primarily target Republicans, though. Paul’s independent support is a lot stronger than his GOP support.
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/14/07 at 2:43 pm :

Anonymous, Yes, the gop are winners as defined by you; libertarians losers. So? Ron Paul lost in 88 as lp. He is most compatible with CP, but didn’t go there. He went with the winners i.e became one of THEM. So is he a traitor, ass-kisser or disoriented or just had to adjust his antennae? Dustin, if you think he’ll lose EVERY primary because 1+1=2, then you’ve done your math. If you think he will win -or might win-a primary, your tin foil hat is on just right.Little Jim, see: Dustin. Don’t let your tin foil hat get on too tight. Makes your head tilt to the right. Steve, just transmit to independents to register republican.
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/14/07 at 2:54 pm :

Little Jim, zero is the number of times I’ve voted republican.
Dustin Timbrook wrote on 09/14/07 at 7:45 pm :

“Dustin. Don’t let your tin foil hat get on too tight. Makes your head tilt to the right.”

Man, you totally just won my vote.
Don wrote on 09/15/07 at 3:04 pm :

Judging only by some of Robert Milnes’ comments here his website may not be the only thing he has under construction.
Joy wrote on 09/16/07 at 4:51 am :

The influx of newly political individuals who have been brought into the GOP is still an unknown. Who is to say that they may learn enough to become delegates show up in large numbers and turn the GOP nomination into their own version of Ventura campaign. Those who are under 35 and not working for or receiving benefits from the government are being taxed into poverty. This anger at being enslaved for 6 months of the year to pay for everyone else is a strong motivator. Paul’s key demographic is also impoverished by inflation so his message strikes home there as well. Finally the specter 100% government slavery in the form of a draft is winning him even more support. So I wouldn’t count Ron Paul out of the game just yet.
Anonymous wrote on 09/16/07 at 4:49 pm :

Don, what are you talking about? Joy, up at 4am hitting the keyboard for Ron Paul?! Get a life! Unfortunately you are probably right. Ron Paul can’t be counted out yet. He’ll drag this out & the LP down to the bitter end. All paid for by fools with tin foil hats.
Rob wrote on 09/17/07 at 4:32 pm :

If Ron Paul doesn’t win the GOP nomination, he’ll be dragged, kicking and screaming to run independently. Paul’s vast army of passionate supporters aren’t…can’t let this once in a lifetime chance pass by without an appropriate fight.

It’s not about winning at this point. It’s about shifting the conversation. Whether or not Paul wins, the Libertarian message is getting out there….In a BIG way right now..and people are hungry for it. We have to keep Ron Paul in the public discussion for as long as possible…EVEN after the elections.
Rob wrote on 09/17/07 at 4:36 pm :

P.S.

RIP Harry Browne…the most elegant,knowledgeable speaker for the Libertarian cause. I wish he were alive to see the Ron Paul Revolution!
Anonymous wrote on 09/17/07 at 4:46 pm :

Rob, Ron Paul, independent? I doubt it. First, he has 2.4 million, not 2.4 billion. Second, he wants ballot access handed to him. It’s a lot of work, getting ballot access. No, after he loses the gop primaries, the REAL libertarian candidates will take over the campaign. Hopefully he’ll go back to Texas & kiss gop butt.
Rob wrote on 09/18/07 at 8:31 am :

Anonymous,

A REAL libertarian? You don’t think Ron Paul is a real Libertarian? Who is a real libertarian Anonymous?
Robert Milnes wrote on 09/18/07 at 9:58 am :

Rob, there is a lot of variation but generally one who has abandoned the lp & should be in the Constitution party but is actually in the gop & calls himself a “conservative” has forfeit claim of libertarian.IMO.
Rob wrote on 09/18/07 at 4:23 pm :

Mr Milnes,

Good luck with your Libertarian run.
GordonUnleashed » Blog Archive » Ron Paul Becoming More Credible wrote on 09/26/07 at 5:04 pm :

[…] play this election cycle. More and more and more people are saying what I’ve been suggesting again, again and again: Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton in the […]

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