Ron Paul and Libertarian Party Campaigns: Comparing Apples and Oranges
September 26th, 2007 by Steve
Many people are asking “Who is Ron Paul?” People rarely asked “Who is Michael Badnarik?”
Because of my work on Libertarian Party presidential campaigns (and at the national LP headquarters), I’m often asked for an assessment of Ron Paul’s presidential bid. The short answer is that he’s seeking a GOP nomination, so it’s like mixing apples and oranges. However, there are some distinct similarities between the two.
To begin, a lot of the supporters (and types of supporters) are the same, but Paul has a lot more of them. One reason is that he’s a ten-term GOP congressman and not someone only known within libertarian (i.e. Harry Browne and Aaron Russo) or Libertarian Party (i.e. Michael Badnarik) circles.
Paul also has a large following in groups which would support Constitution Party candidates. He has the support of many libertarian- or constitution-minded folks in the Republican Party, something a third party candidate rarely earns. He’s got the support of a lot of independent people who don’t normally engage in political activism, again rare for a third party candidate. He’s also got some traditional independent voters who tend to vote for candidates from one of the two larger parties. He also has a handful of liberal supporters because of his steadfast opposition to the Iraq War or other related issues.
From what I see in the field as well as when talking to campaign staffers, Ron Paul has over ten times the level of dedicated activists pushing the campaign forward. There certainly is a sizable group forming the skeleton of Paul’s grassroots campaign. Only time will tell if this larger group of activists will be enough to gain Paul the momentum needed to win.
Russo and Badnarik performed well on the Internet, often using state-of-the-art web techniques. Site traffic, especially in the few weeks of the “public” part of the Badnarik campaign, was significant and growing. Several print articles and quite a few internet articles were written about our tech savvy. Ron Paul is currently performing much better on the net.
Because of the unique characteristics of the Badnarik campaign, there were only about two months available to effectively raise campaign money, especially on the internet. Paul has the distinct advantage of being able to start considerably earlier and is doing a great job of it.
Badnarik generally polled low, but on occasion would peak at five percent in some states. Paul is already polling consistently better overall — long before the first votes will be cast.
There are other factors at play, too. With respect to very early earned media levels, Russo and Paul were about even. Paul immediately jumped out ahead, showing that serving ten terms as a Republican congressman running as a GOP candidate trumps Hollywood production experience as a Libertarian candidate. Following Paul’s debate scene with Rudy Giuliani, he’s received considerably more mainstream media exposure than any LP candidate could hope to muster.
In general, I’d say that Ron Paul’s campaign is similar to the LP campaigns I’ve worked, but it started at around ten times the scope at the core measurable levels. This doesn’t limit the Paul campaign to ten times the votes earned or dollars raised, though. For starters, let’s say that each hardcore Ron Paul supporter influences the vote of ten people on average. Right off the bat, that would make the campaign a hundred times more effective.
Additionally, Paul’s campaign is already longer in duration than the “real” Badnarik campaign was. For those who aren’t aware, Badnarik wasn’t expected to win the LP nomination. He had no campaign organization (and had only raised around $40,000, if I recall the amount correctly) until after he won the LP nomination. Of the five months he was the candidate, the first two months were spent mostly on local visits and fixing many neglected logistical concerns. Aside from two key volunteers, there was no headquarters, no professional staff, no comprehensive direct mail operations, no media team, no major yard sign or bumper sticker operation, etc. It took a little time to build from scratch with no money in the bank. I didn’t work for the campaign until the last three months, or so. Most of what happened in the campaign from a public perspective was in the last two months of it.
Ron Paul has had a credible campaign for months now and there is over a year remaining. With this amount of time available, there will be a lot more opportunity to build the campaign machine, fill the coffers and gain critical support. Badnarik never came close to peaking; his real campaign started in the ninth inning and didn’t even have the financial resources to begin to compete until the final play of the game. The Paul campaign has the luxury of time in order to peak the momentum on Election Day.
Combining the longer time frame and increased base level of support provide Dr. Paul the potential to win. Not only can each hardcore supporter hypothetically influence ten votes, one out of those ten new voters will also be a hardcore supporter. These new supporters will have the time to influence ten more voters, and so on.
I realize that I’ve greatly oversimplified the impact of a supporter by stating he or she will influence ten votes, but I’m trying to make a point here. Ron Paul supporters come in a lot of varieties and it will be difficult to measure their ultimate impact until Election Day. However, Paul will require around 150 to 175 times the votes Badnarik earned in order to win a year from November. With the many additional resources Paul has available, he’s ultimately got a chance to win.
6 Responses to “Ron Paul and Libertarian Party Campaigns: Comparing Apples and Oranges”
Leave a Reply
About
Bloggers with whom I'd like to hang out
Bloggers with whom I've hung out
- Ana Marie and Alex
- Angela
- Baylen
- Blue
- Bob
- Brad
- Bruce
- Chris
- Chris
- Dan
- David, Charles, Anthony and Roderick
- Dick
- Elizabeth
- Eric
- Fred
- Isis
- James
- Jason
- Jason
- Jason
- Jesse
- Jim
- John
- Jonah
- Julian
- Kevin, Paul, Robert and Norm
- Kyle
- Lew, Norm and Anthony
- Loretta
- Mark
- Matthew
- Megan
- Michelle
- Michelle, Paulie and Chris
- Mike
- Nick
- Nick, Jesse, Brian, Radley, Kerry, David, Julian, Katherine, Ronald and various interns
- Paulie
- Philip
- R. Lee, Mike and Sean
- Rachel
- Radley
- Richard
- Robert Stacy
- Roderick
- Scott
- Shana
- Stephen
- Thomas
- Tom and Kris
- Will
Other places I blog
Archives
Categories
- Alabama Politics (136)
- Articles (12)
- Bad Democrats (40)
- Bad Media (24)
- Bad Republicans (119)
- Bob Barr (11)
- Civil Liberties (68)
- Culture (40)
- Economic Policy (8)
- Election Reform (10)
- Fiscal Responsibility (22)
- Foreign Policy (21)
- Graphics (1)
- Health Care (17)
- History (3)
- Housekeeping (11)
- In the News (13)
- It's a Southern Thang (50)
- Judicial Issues (1)
- Just for Fun (34)
- Libertarian Movement (205)
- Libertarian Party (79)
- National Politics (275)
- Prohibition Mentality (6)
- Regulatory Burden (3)
- Ron Paul (186)
- Satire (24)
- Sex and Politics (15)
- Supreme Court (2)
- Taxes (17)
- Tech (8)
- Travel (6)
- Wasteful Spending (18)
- Zero Tolerance (6)
Meta
GordonUnleashed » Blog Archive » Innovative Presidential Fundraising Tactics wrote on 09/26/07 at 3:54 pm :
[…] we are on the topic of comparing the Libertarian Party angle of the 2004 presidential race to this election cycle, it […]
Albert Meyer, Plano TX wrote on 09/26/07 at 4:22 pm :
Thanks for an interesting analysis. Those who wager their own money are pretty bullish on Ron Paul’s chances.
Noteworthy News Regarding Sportsbook.com Online Gambling:
* Hillary Clinton at 2 to 1 odds for a Payout of $2 for Every $1 Bet or $200 for Every $100 Bet
* Fred Thomas Betting Odds Open at 20 to 1 with a Payout Potential of $2000 for Every $100 Bet
* Ron Paul Odds Slashed Dramatically From 200 to 1 to 15 to 1 in Just One Month - Payout $1500 for every $100 bet
link: http://www.gambling911.com/Sportsbook.com-Online-Gambling.html
disinter wrote on 09/26/07 at 5:35 pm :
I have to disagree that Ron Paul has over a year remaining. It is more like 3-4 months, because the primaries will determine whether or not it makes sense to even stay in the race. Am I wrong?
He will not win as an independent. The urgency to do whatever we can NOW is being overlooked.
Steve wrote on 09/26/07 at 5:46 pm :
disinter — Your point is valid. I was looking at the entire election cycle, as opposed to the milestones which have to be met along the way.
Some early primary victories are incredibly important. Other milestones include doing well this FEC filing period and winning the GOP nomination is obvious.
If Paul keeps raising money like he’s doing at the moment, he has a fair chance of success, though.
Gene Berkman wrote on 09/26/07 at 10:18 pm :
Ron Paul is getting out the antiwar libertarian message, and that is more important than party affiliation.
For news on the campaign visit “Libertarians for Ron Paul” @ www.libertariansforpaul.com
Don wrote on 09/27/07 at 11:39 am :
“let’s say that each hardcore Ron Paul supporter influences the vote of ten people on average”
In my own small way that’s my primary contribution to Paul’s campaign. I spend quite a bit of time at it and I know that I’ve already influenced several people to become Paul supporters who had no idea who he is, what his record is, or where he stands on the issues until I contacted them by email. Quite a bit of the information is send is unashamedly stolen from this blog, and I have Steve Gordon to thank for posting it here. I may have even gained him some new readers of “Gordon Unleashed”.