GordonUnleashed

Ron Paul v. Hillary Part V

October 25th, 2007 by Steve

I’ve been pushing this concept for some time:

More and more and more people are saying what I’ve been suggesting again, again and again: Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Brian Doherty has linked to a survey analysis which indicates that polling data are beginning to support my hypothesis.

The results here are quite astonishing folks. Rudy Giuliani would lose against Hillary Clinton among 30 year olds 54% to 36%. So would Fred Thompson 63% to 32%. All this contrary to the fact that Republicans should win (do well) in this age range. Only Ron Paul does.

This sample is smaller (larger MoE) and taken a few days prior but that does not mean much when you consider Ron Paul is behind Clinton 2% versus Giuliani being behind 18% among 30 year olds.

No matter how you slice it, Rudy Giuliani only does 3% better than does Ron Paul against Hillary Clinton. Now that speaks highly of Hillary Clinton and the Democrats for the 2008 election at this point.

Whether this means Ron Paul has a better chance to beat Hillary Clinton than Rudy Giuliani can be debated though. This is because there is a chance that Republicans and Conservatives who picked Ron Paul might not do so in reality because they may have been unknown of his anti-war stance. Then again, the moderate voters might be more likely to choose Ron Paul because of that.

The point is Ron Paul has some room for growth considering his low name recognition and possible likelihood of mobilizing and improving on how he does among moderate voters [reference] and even the youth voters. And the Republicans not supporting him, well Hillary Clinton is so hated, they might just vote Paul anyways as a protest vote. Not exactly certain at this point how those voters would respond.

As Ron Paul advertising kicks into high gear, it will be interesting to see exactly how these stats change over the next few weeks.

Posted in Ron Paul, National Politics

5 Responses to “Ron Paul v. Hillary Part V”

1. Scott McDonnell wrote on 10/25/07 at 11:05 am :

   Which is exactly why the attacks have stepped up, even on “Republican” websites. The fix was supposed to be in for Hillary, dagnabbit! She was chosen for the crown! Don’t you understand?

   Why elese would the GOP and media be pushing some of the most repulsive candidates I have seen in my lifetime (hey, I even voted for GWB in 2000… fooled me… once.)

2. Talmadge East wrote on 10/25/07 at 11:39 am :

   As you stated Ron Paul does have a lot of room for growth, but because he is not polling well, he is not getting attacked by the other candidates. This late in the game, if Paul was polling that well internally, it would manifest itself in the form of attack ads. There is a reason Romney and Giuliani are fighting, they are at the top.

3. Steve wrote on 10/25/07 at 12:08 pm :

   Talmadge,

   I agree with your assessment. I’m curious about the impact of 7 or so million dollars on name recognition, though.

4. Robert Milnes wrote on 10/25/07 at 4:37 pm :

   Yeah, I’m curious as to just how wasted that $7 mil will be too.

5. retro wrote on 11/20/07 at 10:34 am :

   As much as I’d like to see a woman president, I don’t trust Hillary as far as I can throw her.

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